The Impact of Demographic Factors and Labor Market Variables on the Crisis in Iranian Pension Funds

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

University of Guilan

Abstract

The pension fund crisis, the signs of which have become apparent, shows more than ever the need to pay attention to the consequences, orientations, and policies in decision-making systems on the financial sustainability of pension funds. In the meantime, demographic changes and labor market variables over time are of particular importance as one of the important issues affecting different sectors of funds. For this reason, in this study, we examine demographic factors and labor market variables and their dimensions in order to make appropriate policies for the sustainability of funds. To examine the status of existing variables, a valid and scientific independent sample t-test has been used. To test the accuracy of the theoretical research model and calculate the impact coefficients, the structural equation modeling method has been used using PLS software. In order to prioritize the effective components, a questionnaire was prepared and distributed with the participation of 59 university professors, experts, and specialists in capital markets and pension funds, who were selected through simple random sampling, and the results were factor analyzed. From the experts' point of view, the results of the study show that the ratio of the elderly to the total population with a standard coefficient (β=0.878) has the greatest impact, and temporary work contracts with a standard coefficient (β=0.738) and the social and economic status of women with a standard coefficient (β=0.738) have the least impact on the crisis in pension funds. Also, R² was calculated to be 0.729 and the GOF value was calculated to be 0.550, which indicates a strong and very appropriate overall fit of the research model. This article attempts to provide useful information by examining and ranking the variables.

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