Examining the short-term and long-term impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the balance of payments in selected MENA countries

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Economic

2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

Abstract

The balance of payments is one of the most important macro variables and one of the strategic macroeconomic constraints for developing countries. It is known as one of the variables affecting the balance of payments. The exchange rate mainly affects the value of exports and imports and, as a result, the balance of payments through the channel of changes in the value of the national currency. The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the balance of payments in the MENA region countries during the period 1995-2024 using the autoregressive model with panel distribution lags (PMG). The research findings indicate that the exchange rate has had a positive and significant impact on the balance of payments in the short and long term. Other findings indicate that the degree of openness of the economy and GDP in the short and long term have increased the balance of payments, while inflation has decreased the balance of payments.نرخ ارز یکی از مهم‌ترین متغیرهای کلان و از محدودیت‌های استراتژیک اقتصاد کلان برای کشورهای در حال توسعه است. و به عنوان یکی از متغیرهای موثر بر تراز پرداختها شناخته می‌شود. نرخ ارز عمدتاً از کانال تغییر ارزش پول ملی بر ارزش صادرات و واردات و در نتیجه تراز پرداخت‌ها اثر می‌گذارد. هدف از انجام این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر تراز پرداختها در کشورهای منطقه منا طی دوره2024-1995 با بهره‌گیری از الگوی خود رگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی پانلی (PMG) می‌باشد. یافته‌های پژوهش حاکی از آن است نوسانات نرخ ارز در کوتاه‌مدت تاثیر منفی و در بلندمدت تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر تراز پرداختها داشته است. دیگر یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که درجه باز بودن اقتصاد و تولید ناخالص داخلی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت باعث افزایش تراز پرداختها، تورم باعث کاهش تراز پرداختها شده است. بنابراین دولت‌ها و سیاستگذاران اقتصادی باید بتواند با پیش‌بینی و اعمال سیاست‌های ارزی مناسب جهت بهبود تراز پرداختها داشته باشند. همچنین با اعمال برنامه‌ریزی صحیح ارزی و مالی به ایجاد ثبات در بازار ارز اقدام کنند

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Public Sector Economics Studies
Volume 4, Issue 4 - Serial Number 14
January 2026
Pages 687-718

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History

  • Receive Date: 13 September 2025
  • Revise Date: 16 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 17 December 2025

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