Examining Possible Scenarios Effective on Poverty Alleviation in Kermanshah Province with Structural Analysis Method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics, Dept. of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

2 Associate Professor of Economics Dept. of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

Abstract

Poverty, as an undesirable socio-economic phenomenon, is one of the most important consequences of the unfair distribution of income among people in society. In recent decades, reducing poverty and increasing the welfare level of households has become one of the important topics of economic development in countries so that alleviating poverty and improving the welfare level of people in the society is considered a necessary condition for economic growth. Future studies is an approach to public and private policymaking and decision-making in the science and technology policy environment that provides answers to strategic questions related to science and society in a long-term perspective. New future research methods, especially scenario building, are useful in dealing with national and regional issues due to their flexible strategies. The type of applied-developmental research and its investigation method according to the new methods of future research is surveying experts' opinions (in several stages) in the form of a questionnaire (in the form of a matrix of mutual effects). To analyze the results of the research, Mic-Mac and Scenario Wizard software have been used. In the structure of identifying factors affecting poverty reduction in Kermanshah province, after analysis using MIC MAC software, 10 variables were determined as key variables. And then, using the scenario wizard, five strong compatible scenarios were determined according to specific characteristics. Among these five scenarios, the first scenario has ideal and favorable conditions (stimulating scenario), the second and third scenarios are suitable and have moderate conditions, and the fourth and fifth scenarios have critical and unfavorable conditions and are unsuitable for improving and reducing poverty in Kermanshah province.

Keywords

Public Sector Economics Studies

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 26 June 2023

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History

  • Receive Date: 07 April 2023
  • Revise Date: 12 June 2023
  • Accept Date: 17 June 2023

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