اثر تعاملی ریسک ژئوپلیتیک و رانت نفت بر انتشار کربن در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته دکتری اقتصاد بخش عمومی و پژوهشگر اقتصادی

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ایلی‌نوی شیکاگو، شیکاگو ، آمریکا.

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر رانت نفت و ریسک ژئوپلیتیک (GPR) و همچنین اثر تعاملی این دو متغیر بر انتشار کربن در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت می‌باشد. هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر رانت نفت و ریسک ژئوپلیتیک (GPR) و همچنین اثر تعاملی این دو متغیر بر انتشار کربن در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت می‌باشد. به این منظور از اطلاعات آماری 25 کشور صادرکننده نفت طی سال‌های 2021-2000 در قالب روش تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌های پانل شامل هم‌انباشتگی پانلی با وابستگی مقطعی و برآوردگر اثرات ثابت (FE) استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از تأثیر مثبت رانت نفت بر انتشار CO2 و تأیید فرضیه نفرین کربن در کشورهای مورد مطالعه است؛ به‌گونه‌ای که با یک درصد افزایش در سهم رانت نفت از GDP، انتشار CO2 حدود 09/0 درصد افزایش خواهد داد. اثر تعاملی رانت نفت و شاخص GPR نیز بر انتشار CO2، مثبت و گویای این موضوع است که اثرات زیست‌محیطی منفی رانت نفت، زمانی که اقتصادهای صادرکننده نفت در معرض خطرات ژئوپلیتیکی قرار می‌گیرند، افزایش می‌یابد. استحکام نتایج تجربی به‌دست‌آمده با تفکیک کشورهای صادرکننده نفت به دو دسته کشورهای با GPR بالاتر از متوسط نمونه (دسته نخست) و کشورهای با GPR کمتر از متوسط نمونه (دسته دوم) تأیید شده است. بر این اساس، نتایج نشان‌ می‌دهد که اثر مثبت رانت نفت بر انتشار CO2 در کشورهای دسته نخست به‌مراتب بیشتر از کشورهای دسته دوم می‌باشد. بر اساس سایر نتایج، مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر، اثر منفی بر انتشار CO2 داشته است و فرضیه منحنی زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس (EKC) برای کشورهای مورد مطالعه تأیید می‌شود.بر اساس سایر نتایج، مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر، اثر منفی بر انتشار CO2 داشته است و فرضیه منحنی زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس (EKC) برای کشورهای مورد مطالعه تأیید می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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