ارزیابی بازدهی بازار سهام، طلا و دلار در دوره قبل و بعد از کرونا ‏ با رویکرد چندکی مدل ‏EGARCH

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

مدرس/دانشگاه

چکیده

با شیوه ویروس کرونا از اسفند ماه و تعطیلی بسیاری از کسب و کارها مشکلاتی هم برای اقتصاد کشور به وجود ‏آورد. در کنار تحریم‌های شدیدکه مدت‌ها است اقتصاد ایران را درگیر خود کرده، قطع مبادلات تجاری با ‏کشورهایی که با وجود تحریم ها با ایران در ارتباط بودند، ضربه سنگینی به اقتصاد وارد کرده است. یکی از وقایع مهم سال 2020 میلادی شیوع ویروس کرونا بود که تأثیر آن بر بازارهای مالی به عنوان یک ‏شاخص مؤثر اقتصاد مطرح است و شرکت‌ها در بحران بیماری کرونا با خطر‌های بی سابقه‌ای روبرو شدند، که ‏موحب ناپایداری و عدم اطمینان در بازارهای مالی شده بود و درصد قابل توجهی از ارزش دارایی های همچون ‏طلا و دلار به صورت غیر منتظره در دوره کرونا کاهش یافتند. در مقاله حاضر به ارزیابی بازدهی بازار سهام، طلا ‏و دلار در دو بازه‌ی زمانی برابر، قبل و بعد از ویروس کرونا که قبل از ویروس کرونا از تاریخ 19/2/1397 تا ‏‏29/12/1398 و بازه‌ی زمانی در دوران ویروس کرونا در ایران یعنی از تاریخ 14/01/1399 تا 10/08/1400 با ‏استفاده از داده‌های روزانه پرداخته شده است. این مقاله با استفاده از رگرسیون چندکی مبتنی بر مدل ‏EGARCH‏ به برآورد بازدهی طلا و دلار جهت پوشش ریسک بازار سهام قبل و بعد کرونا پرداخته است. نتایج ‏مبین آن است که بازدهی دلار و طلا در طی دوران ویروس کرونا نسبت به بازار سهام کمتر بود و طلا در تمام ‏شرایط به جزء چندک‌های چارک اول و چارک دوم رابطه منفی و معکوسی با بازار سهام را از خود نشان داده ‏است و طلا جهت پوشش ریسک بازار سهام مطلوب نیست و دلار در وضعیت صعودی، متوسط و نزولی بازدهی ‏بهتری را نسبت به طلا و سهام در دوره شیوع ویروس کرونا از خود نشان داده است.‏

کلیدواژه‌ها


Al-Awadhi, A.M. Alsaifi, KH. Al-Awadhi, A. Alhammadi, S. (2020). “Death and ontagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 1-6.

Ali Nazimi A, & Majid Afshari Rad. (2022). Assessing the risk coverage of Iran's capital market through global markets (simultaneous trading in Iran Stock Exchange and Anas Gold Market). Financial and Economic Policy Quarterly, 9(33), 7-39.  http://qjfep.ir/article-1-1216-fa.html ‎[In Persian ].‎

Argha, L., Alizadeh, Sh., Mohantfar, Y & Taherinia, M. (2022). The basic relationship between shareholders and the fluctuations of investment returns in industrial companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, Industrial Economics Research Quarterly, 5(15):99-75. ‎[In Persian ].‎ ‏ ‏ ‏https://doi.org/‎‏10.30473‏‎/indeco.‎‏2021.7960‏.

Ayoub, R. (2020). “Stock market vulnerability to the Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from emerging Asian stock markets”, MPRA, No. 101774.

Badri Bookshop, A., Mirzapur Babajan, A., Akbar Moghadam, B. (2021). The effect of monetary policy shocks on the price of selected industrial goods in Iran using the Bayesian method, Scientific Quarterly of Industrial Economics Research, 4(12), 57-72. ‎[In Persian ].‎

Baker, Scott; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven; Kost, Kyle J.; Sammon, Marco C.; & Viratyosin, Tasaneeya. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Baur, Dirk; & Lucey, Brian. (2010). Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold. The Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229.

Beckmann, Joscha; Berger, Theo; & Czudaj, Robert. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48(C), 16-24.

Bekiros, Stelios; Boubaker, Sabri; Nguyen, Duc Khuong; & Uddin, Gazi Salah. (2017). Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73(PB), 317-334.

Branson, W.H. (1983), Macroeconomic determinants of real exchange risk, In: Herring, R.J. (Ed.), Managing Foreign Exchange Risk, Cambridge University, Cambridge

Cheema, Muhammad A.; Robert W. Faff; & Kenneth Szulczyk. (2020). The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic: How Safe are the Safe Haven Assets? ssrn, 36.

Cho, Dooyeon; & Han, Heejoon. (2021). The tail behavior of safe haven currencies: A cross-quantilogram analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 70(C).

Ciner, C. (2020). “Stock Return Predictability in the time of COVID-19”, Finance Research Letters, 101705.

De Bock, Reinout; & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu. (2015). The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes. Journal of International Money and Finance, 53(C), 218-234.

Dias, Rui; da Silva, Jacinto Vidigal; & Dionísio, Andreia. (2019). Financial markets of the LAC region: Does the crisis influence the financial integration? International Review of Financial Analysis, 63(C), 160-173.

Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., (1980), Exchange rates and the current account, The American Economic Review, 70(5), pp.960–971

Gates, Bill. (2020). Responding to Covid-19 — A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic? New England Journal of Medicine, 382(18), 1677-1679. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

Grisse, Christian; & Nitschka, Thomas. (2015). On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates. Journal of Empirical Finance, 32, 153-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.03.006

Habib, Maurizio M.; & Stracca, Livio. (2012). Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 50-64.

Hafiziyah, A. (2019). Corona and its economic effects in the world and Iran, Corona Crisis Management Database, Faculty of Management and Economics of Imam Hossein University (AS). https://sid.ir/paper/‎‏524158‏‎/fa‎ ‎[In Persian ].‎

Heydari, H &  Bashiri, S. (2012). Investigating the relationship between the uncertainty of the real exchange rate and the stock price index in the Tehran Stock Exchange: Observations based on the VAR-GARCH model, Economic Modeling Research Quarterly, 3(9), 71. ‎ http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-‎‏1‏‎-‎‏238‏‎-fa.html‎ ‎[In Persian ].‎

Hosseiniyon, N., Sadat, B., Ebrahimi, Taghi,S. (2015). Investigating the transmission of yield rate volatility between stock, gold and currency markets in Iran, Iran Economic Research Quarterly, 66, 123-150. ‎  https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2016.7049 ‎[In Persian ].‎

Hosseinzadeh, H. (2018). Cover and safe haven of gold against stocks and inflation in Iran. Modern Economy and Trade, 14(3), 71-95‎.  https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2018.9836 [In Persian ].‎

Iqbal, Javed. (2017a). Does gold hedge stock market, inflation and exchange rate risks? An econometric investigation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 48(C), 1-17.

Iqbal, Javed. (2017b). Does gold hedge stock market, inflation and exchange rate risks? An econometric investigation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 48(C), 1-17.

Islamlovian, K., Zare, H. (2015). Examining the impact of macro variables and alternative assets on stock prices in Iran: an autocorrelated model with distributive breaks, Iran Economic Research, 18(29):17-46. https://sid.ir/paper/2454/fa .[In Persian ].

Seifaldini; J & Rahnema Rudpashti.F (2018). Gold as a safe haven for the Tehran Stock Exchange: a mode change approach. Financial knowledge of securities analysis, 11, 147-160 https://sid.ir/paper/200353/fa .‎[In Persian ].‎

Ji, Qiang; Zhang, Dayong; & Zhao, Yuqian. (2020). Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 71(C).

Karimzadeh, M. (2015). Investigating the long-term relationship between stock price summary index and macroeconomic variables using the co-aggregation method in Iran's economy, Economic Research Quarterly, 8(26), 41-54. https://sid.ir/paper/‎‏2668‏‎/fa‎ [In Persian].‎

Ketabferosh Badri, A., Mirzapourbabajan, A, & Akbari Moghadam, Bait Elah. (2019). The impact of monetary policy shocks on the price of selected industrial goods in Iran using the Bayesian method. Industrial Economics Research, 4(12), 57-72. https://sid.ir/paper/381284/fa

  1. Kabir Hassan; Hadrian Geri Djajadikerta; Choudhury, Tonmoy; & Muhammad Kamran. (2021). Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC | Request PDF. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.100643

Ma, Xiaomeng; Yang, Ruixian; Zou, Dong; & Liu, Rui. (2020). Measuring extreme risk of sustainable financial system using GJR-GARCH model trading data-based. International Journal of Information Management, 50, 526-537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.12.013

Narayan, P. K. Devpura, N. Hua, W. (2020). “Japanese currency and stock market— What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?”,Economic Analysis and Policy.

Narayan, P. K. Phan, D. H. B. Liu, G. (2020). “COVID-19 lockdowns, stimulus packages, travel bans, and stock returns”, Finance research letters, 101732.

Omane-Adjepong, Maurice; & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul. (2021). Exploration of safe havens for Africa’s stock markets: A test case under COVID-19 crisis. Finance Research Letters, 38(C).

Salisu, Afees A.; Raheem, Ibrahim D.; & Vo, Xuan Vinh. (2021). Assessing the safe haven property of the gold market during COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, 101666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.101666

Silva, Petrônio C. L.; Batista, Paulo V. C.; Lima, Hélder S.; Alves, Marcos A.; Guimarães, Frederico G.; & Silva, Rodrigo C. P. (2020). COVID-ABS: An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Epidemic to Simulate Health and Economic Effects of Social Distancing Interventions. arXiv:2006.10532 [physics]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.110088

Soltani, A &  Sadeghi, S. (2015). The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the development process of Southeast Asian countries (case study: Malaysia), Nation Research, 1(11), 1-25. https://civilica.com/doc/589220 ‎[In Persian ].‎

Urquhart, Andrew; & Zhang, Hanxiong. (2019). Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe haven for currencies? An intraday analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 63, 49-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.02.009

Wang, K. M. & Lee, Y. M. (2016), Hedging exchange rate risk in the gold market: A panel data analysis. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 35, 1-23

Wen, Xiaoqian; & Cheng, Hua. (2018). Which is the safe haven for emerging stock markets, gold or the US dollar? Emerging Markets Review, 35, 69-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.12.006

 

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    Ali Nazimi A, & Majid Afshari Rad. (2022). Assessing the risk coverage of Iran's capital market through global markets (simultaneous trading in Iran Stock Exchange and Anas Gold Market). Financial and Economic Policy Quarterly, 9(33), 7-39.  http://qjfep.ir/article-1-1216-fa.html ‎[In Persian ].‎

    Argha, L., Alizadeh, Sh., Mohantfar, Y & Taherinia, M. (2022). The basic relationship between shareholders and the fluctuations of investment returns in industrial companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, Industrial Economics Research Quarterly, 5(15):99-75. ‎[In Persian ].‎ ‏ ‏ ‏https://doi.org/‎‏10.30473‏‎/indeco.‎‏2021.7960‏.

    Ayoub, R. (2020). “Stock market vulnerability to the Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from emerging Asian stock markets”, MPRA, No. 101774.

    Badri Bookshop, A., Mirzapur Babajan, A., Akbar Moghadam, B. (2021). The effect of monetary policy shocks on the price of selected industrial goods in Iran using the Bayesian method, Scientific Quarterly of Industrial Economics Research, 4(12), 57-72. ‎[In Persian ].‎

    Baker, Scott; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven; Kost, Kyle J.; Sammon, Marco C.; & Viratyosin, Tasaneeya. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Baur, Dirk; & Lucey, Brian. (2010). Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold. The Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229.

    Beckmann, Joscha; Berger, Theo; & Czudaj, Robert. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48(C), 16-24.

    Bekiros, Stelios; Boubaker, Sabri; Nguyen, Duc Khuong; & Uddin, Gazi Salah. (2017). Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73(PB), 317-334.

    Branson, W.H. (1983), Macroeconomic determinants of real exchange risk, In: Herring, R.J. (Ed.), Managing Foreign Exchange Risk, Cambridge University, Cambridge

    Cheema, Muhammad A.; Robert W. Faff; & Kenneth Szulczyk. (2020). The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic: How Safe are the Safe Haven Assets? ssrn, 36.

    Cho, Dooyeon; & Han, Heejoon. (2021). The tail behavior of safe haven currencies: A cross-quantilogram analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 70(C).

    Ciner, C. (2020). “Stock Return Predictability in the time of COVID-19”, Finance Research Letters, 101705.

    De Bock, Reinout; & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu. (2015). The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes. Journal of International Money and Finance, 53(C), 218-234.

    Dias, Rui; da Silva, Jacinto Vidigal; & Dionísio, Andreia. (2019). Financial markets of the LAC region: Does the crisis influence the financial integration? International Review of Financial Analysis, 63(C), 160-173.

    Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., (1980), Exchange rates and the current account, The American Economic Review, 70(5), pp.960–971

    Gates, Bill. (2020). Responding to Covid-19 — A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic? New England Journal of Medicine, 382(18), 1677-1679. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

    Grisse, Christian; & Nitschka, Thomas. (2015). On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates. Journal of Empirical Finance, 32, 153-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.03.006

    Habib, Maurizio M.; & Stracca, Livio. (2012). Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 50-64.

    Hafiziyah, A. (2019). Corona and its economic effects in the world and Iran, Corona Crisis Management Database, Faculty of Management and Economics of Imam Hossein University (AS). https://sid.ir/paper/‎‏524158‏‎/fa‎ ‎[In Persian ].‎

    Heydari, H &  Bashiri, S. (2012). Investigating the relationship between the uncertainty of the real exchange rate and the stock price index in the Tehran Stock Exchange: Observations based on the VAR-GARCH model, Economic Modeling Research Quarterly, 3(9), 71. ‎ http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-‎‏1‏‎-‎‏238‏‎-fa.html‎ ‎[In Persian ].‎

    Hosseiniyon, N., Sadat, B., Ebrahimi, Taghi,S. (2015). Investigating the transmission of yield rate volatility between stock, gold and currency markets in Iran, Iran Economic Research Quarterly, 66, 123-150. ‎  https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2016.7049 ‎[In Persian ].‎

    Hosseinzadeh, H. (2018). Cover and safe haven of gold against stocks and inflation in Iran. Modern Economy and Trade, 14(3), 71-95‎.  https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2018.9836 [In Persian ].‎

    Iqbal, Javed. (2017a). Does gold hedge stock market, inflation and exchange rate risks? An econometric investigation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 48(C), 1-17.

    Iqbal, Javed. (2017b). Does gold hedge stock market, inflation and exchange rate risks? An econometric investigation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 48(C), 1-17.

    Islamlovian, K., Zare, H. (2015). Examining the impact of macro variables and alternative assets on stock prices in Iran: an autocorrelated model with distributive breaks, Iran Economic Research, 18(29):17-46. https://sid.ir/paper/2454/fa .[In Persian ].

    Seifaldini; J & Rahnema Rudpashti.F (2018). Gold as a safe haven for the Tehran Stock Exchange: a mode change approach. Financial knowledge of securities analysis, 11, 147-160 https://sid.ir/paper/200353/fa .‎[In Persian ].‎

    Ji, Qiang; Zhang, Dayong; & Zhao, Yuqian. (2020). Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 71(C).

    Karimzadeh, M. (2015). Investigating the long-term relationship between stock price summary index and macroeconomic variables using the co-aggregation method in Iran's economy, Economic Research Quarterly, 8(26), 41-54. https://sid.ir/paper/‎‏2668‏‎/fa‎ [In Persian].‎

    Ketabferosh Badri, A., Mirzapourbabajan, A, & Akbari Moghadam, Bait Elah. (2019). The impact of monetary policy shocks on the price of selected industrial goods in Iran using the Bayesian method. Industrial Economics Research, 4(12), 57-72. https://sid.ir/paper/381284/fa

    1. Kabir Hassan; Hadrian Geri Djajadikerta; Choudhury, Tonmoy; & Muhammad Kamran. (2021). Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC | Request PDF. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.100643

    Ma, Xiaomeng; Yang, Ruixian; Zou, Dong; & Liu, Rui. (2020). Measuring extreme risk of sustainable financial system using GJR-GARCH model trading data-based. International Journal of Information Management, 50, 526-537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.12.013

    Narayan, P. K. Devpura, N. Hua, W. (2020). “Japanese currency and stock market— What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?”,Economic Analysis and Policy.

    Narayan, P. K. Phan, D. H. B. Liu, G. (2020). “COVID-19 lockdowns, stimulus packages, travel bans, and stock returns”, Finance research letters, 101732.

    Omane-Adjepong, Maurice; & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul. (2021). Exploration of safe havens for Africa’s stock markets: A test case under COVID-19 crisis. Finance Research Letters, 38(C).

    Salisu, Afees A.; Raheem, Ibrahim D.; & Vo, Xuan Vinh. (2021). Assessing the safe haven property of the gold market during COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, 101666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.101666

    Silva, Petrônio C. L.; Batista, Paulo V. C.; Lima, Hélder S.; Alves, Marcos A.; Guimarães, Frederico G.; & Silva, Rodrigo C. P. (2020). COVID-ABS: An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Epidemic to Simulate Health and Economic Effects of Social Distancing Interventions. arXiv:2006.10532 [physics]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.110088

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